2026 Projected to be Record-Breaking Warm Year
As the year progresses, forecasts indicate that 2026 is likely to rank as either the warmest or second warmest year recorded.
A vigorous El Niño phenomenon, coupled with human-induced climate change, has led to this August becoming the hottest on record and September being the second hottest.
El Niño, characterized by a warm phase in the tropical Pacific, releases oceanic heat into the atmosphere, temporarily elevating global temperatures.
According to an analysis from Carbon Brief, there is a 67% probability that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year recorded, based on averages from six global temperature datasets.
As January approaches, different climate organizations may report varying conclusions on whether 2026 officially surpasses 2024’s record.
The assessments range widely, with some datasets, such as Berkeley Earth, suggesting a 97% likelihood of a record, while others like Copernicus’s ERA5 reanalysis show less than a 20% chance.
If El Niño continues to strengthen through the winter months, Carbon Brief projects that 2027 may exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.7°C, presenting a 96% likelihood of being the hottest year recorded.
Warm Records Set for August and September
In its quarterly climate update, Carbon Brief highlights several key findings:
- August 2026 was the hottest August on record across all six datasets, exceeding the previous record by approximately 0.12°C. September followed closely, marking the second-hottest September behind 2023.
- From January to September, the average temperature was 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the second warmest such period on record after 2024.
- El Niño established a new daily record for the “Niño3.4” region in September, remaining above prior records ever since. Forecast models indicate it could be the strongest El Niño on record, possibly peaking at around 4°C this winter.
- Approximately 22% of the Earth’s surface registered its hottest July-September on record, particularly in regions such as the tropical Pacific and western Mediterranean.
- Carbon Brief estimates that 2026’s conclusions will be around 1.52°C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 67% probability of surpassing 2024.
- Whether 2026 is officially recorded as the hottest year will vary by dataset, with differing levels of probability across reports.
El Niño Reaches Historical Significance
In September, El Niño significantly impacted temperatures, surpassing record highs for the “Niño3.4” region — the primary indicator for its strength. The daily sea surface temperature anomaly exceeded previous records, marking a historic event.
As of mid-October, the daily temperature anomaly had reached around 3.5°C above average — notably higher than the 2015 peak.
Global Heat Wave Trends
The months from July to September have showcased unprecedented temperature increases worldwide. For instance, global averages were 0.96°C above the 1981-2010 average, demonstrating the widespread impact of El Niño.
Geographically, many regions experienced extraordinary warmth, including significant temperature increases seen in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and parts of Western Europe.
Conversely, a few areas, such as the Weddell Sea sector of Antarctica, experienced atypical cooling.
2026’s Chance of Being the Warmest Year
Based on existing data and temperature forecasts through September, Carbon Brief predicts a 67% chance of 2026 being the warmest year recorded globally. This estimate combines observed temperatures with projected El Niño influences.
By the latest measures, 2026 is expected to range around 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels — closely aligning with the existing record of 1.52°C from 2024.
Diverging Dataset Predictions
In January, various scientific organizations will reveal different assessments regarding 2026. Initial comparisons suggest mixed outcomes, with some datasets indicating that 2026 could be the warmest year while others may rank it second.
Looking Ahead to 2027
2027 is anticipated to feel the most significant effects of this year’s El Niño, with projections indicating a temperature rise of approximately 1.74°C above pre-industrial levels. This represents a 96% likelihood of setting a new temperature record.
Climate Imbalance and Sea Ice Extent
Earth’s energy imbalance has more than doubled recently, showing that the planet absorbs significantly more energy than it radiates back. This increase suggests that acceleration in global warming is anticipated.
As for the Arctic, September recorded the annual low extent of sea ice, which is tied for the 10th lowest on record. Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice reached near-record low levels this winter.
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