If you were to look at almost any 2022 preseason ladder prediction, you’d likely find Collingwood anywhere between tenth and 18th after a 17th-place finish in 2021, the lowest in club history.
The Magpies looked set to enter a rebuild, play the young kids and phase out some of the older players before trending back up the ladder. Now, in the days before Round 19, they’re sitting fifth on the ladder with a 12-5 record and look set for September football. You’d be forgiven for being surprised and trying to figure out what’s happened in the last four months.
There have been a few factors behind the so-far successful campaign: their age demographic, their fixture and their luck.
Deceptive age demographic
Despite looking down the barrel of a rebuild, Collingwood seemed to have avoided it altogether.
Nick Daicos’s outstanding first year disguises the fact that they selected the fifth-oldest team each week on average.
Daicos, having played 17 matches so far, is one of only five players aged 22 or younger to play more than ten games for the Pies this season – the others are Beau McCreery (13), Oliver Henry (13), Jack Ginnivan (16) and Isaac Quaynor (16).
Their average team age of 25.8 years is equal to St Kilda and behind only Geelong, Richmond, West Coast and Brisbane. The age representation is benefitted by veterans Brodie Grundy and Jamie Elliott being out of the team for large chunks of the season with injury.
Fortunate fixture
The AFL fixture is determined by which third a team falls on the ladder in the previous year. For Collingwood, who finished in the final third, the opponents they play twice are
- Adelaide, Carlton and Gold Coast from the bottom third;
- Essendon from the middle third; and
- Melbourne from the top third.
These five teams averaged ten wins each and a percentage of 97.44 per cent, giving them a pretty soft draw when looking from the start of the year.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Credit where credit is due, the Pies are currently on an eight-game win streak. Although if they wanted to challenge this year, most of these games should have been won anyway. Only three teams were outside the bottom six at the time of the game:
- Fremantle in the heavy rain the week after the Dockers were beaten by Gold Coast (also in the rain);
- Carlton, a genuinely good and hard-fought win; and
- Melbourne, the week of the Jake Melksham-Steven May scuffle.
As mentioned, the other five opponents – Hawthorn, GWS, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Adelaide – sat low on the ladder. And that’s without mentioning they were behind at three-quarter-time against the Kangaroos and Crows.
As much as every win is worth four points, the eight-game streak has come against relatively opportune opponents. Similar to Port Adelaide’s 0-5 start, the wins and losses can come in any order. The final record is 22 games.
Close-game luck
A controversial conversation. Each year there’s a team who does exceedingly well in close games – that is, those decided by fewer than 12 points – and this year it’s Collingwood, with a 7-1 record so far.
Some call it experience or training for the situation, but nevertheless the Pies were 1-5 in close games last year.
It’s rare for a club to consistently do well in these close games. If the Pies had split theirs 4-4, they’d be outside the top eight. Their percentage is the lowest of the finals contenders by a good margin, reflecting they’ve been fortunate to pick up wins throughout the year.
The run home
Collingwood have the roughest run home in the competition, coming up against Essendon, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Carlton.
Essendon are in red-hot form at the moment with 4-2 record and 114 per cent since the bye.
Port Adelaide are 8-4 after Round 5, having lost only to Geelong, Fremantle, Richmond and Melbourne.
Melbourne will be peaking coming into the finals and competing for the minor premiership.
Sydney loom as the largest threat to come into the top four with the easiest run home.
Round 23 against Carlton could very well come down to who finishes higher and maybe even decide if Collingwood make the finals.
It’s not absurd to think Collingwood could lose three or four games down this stretch, which ultimately leaves them in the bottom rung of the eight. That would be a remarkable jump from 17th, but still hasn’t achieved a whole lot when it comes to the dynamic of the club.
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