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The 2022 NFL regular season heads into its final Sunday with 14 games on the docket and the final playoff spot in each conference hanging in the balance.
The Green Bay Packers (NFC) and New England Patriots (AFC) face win-and-in scenarios, while the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, and Pittsburgh Steelers all need to win and get varying degrees of help.
With more than half the league eliminated from playoff contention and others likely to rest starters, some of the Week 18 NFL odds look puzzling. (Broncos favored by three over the Chargers stands out.) This week’s best bets will focus on the games where at least one team has something to play for.
Pick #1: Rams vs. Seahawks – Rams team total under 17.5
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Rams | +5.5 (-105) | +225 | 41.5 (-110) |
Seahawks | -5.5 (-115) | -265 | 41.5 (-110) |
No team has been harder hit by injuries this season than the defending Super Bowl-champion Los Angeles Rams (5-11, 1-6 away). While they have managed to go 2-2 in the Baker Mayfield era, the offense has (mostly) been lackluster, especially on the road. The team has been held to 17 points or fewer in three of Mayfield’s four starts and has managed a meager 22 points combined in his two road games (at Packers and at Chargers).
Now the injury-riddled Rams – who are without Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp – have to contend with a Seattle defense that’s held four of its eight opponents at home to 16 or fewer. That includes a dominant 23-6 win over the Jets last week when New York was still fighting for its playoff life. Seattle (8-8, 4-4 home) was strong against the pass, limiting Mike White to 240 yards on 23/46 passing with two picks, and against the run (75 yards on 17 carries) while holding NYJ without a TD. The pass rush sacked White four times.
No one is mistaking the Seahawks for a Super Bowl favorite – they are a +15000 longshot in the latest Super Bowl odds – but they are good value for their status as a playoff contender.
It should be noted that the Seahawk D has been erratic, giving up 27-plus points six times, including an inexplicable 40 to Las Vegas and 30 to Carolina, both at home. But in a playoff-type atmosphere in front of the 12th Man, expect another performance like last Sunday against one of the league’s most-anemic offenses.
While the Seahawks also need a Green Bay loss to qualify for the postseason, this game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. EST, while the Packers and Lions play on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. EST). There is no chance that Seattle will already be out of contention when the game starts, or even learn as much part way through.
Pick: Rams team total under 17.5 (-110)
Pick #2: Lions vs. Packers – Lions +5 (-110)
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Lions | +5 (-110) | +190 | Over 49 (-110) |
Packers | -5 (-110) | -230 | Under 49 (-110) |
This pick feels inherently riskier. If the Seahawks beat the lowly Rams in the afternoon window – which they are heavily favored to do – then Detroit (8-8, 3-4 away) will have nothing to play for. The Lions need a win and a Seattle loss to make it into the NFL playoff bracket.
At the same time, the Lions have been preparing as if their Week 18 tilt with Green Bay (8-8, 5-3 home) means everything. Regardless of the outcome in the Seattle game, Detroit is likely to play its starters throughout and will, at the very least, be fighting to keep a hated division rival out of the playoffs.
Both teams enter Week 18 trending up. The Lions have gone 7-2 straight-up in their past eight and 8-1 against the spread. They suffered a devastating 37-23 loss at Carolina in Week 16, but have otherwise looked like a true NFC contender in the back half of the season. Three of their past five wins came over teams headed to the playoffs (Jaguars, Giants, Vikings).
After losing seven of eight in the middle of the schedule, Green Bay has kept its season alive by winning four in a row. The Packers’ most-recent win was the most impressive, demolishing the NFC North-leading Vikings 41-17 at Lambeau Field in Week 17 to set up their win-and-in Week 18 clash with the Lions.
Back in Week 9, Detroit beat Green Bay 15-9 in an uncharacteristically poor game for Aaron Rodgers. The four-time NFL MVP tossed three interceptions and wound-up on the losing end despite his team outgaining the Lions 389 to 254. In a vacuum, that would have me leaning Packers in the rematch. Not only are they now playing in the friendly confines of Lambeau, Rodgers is highly unlikely to commit multiple turnovers again.
But the Lions offense has been too good ignore of late. Between D.J. Chark, Kalif Raymond, TJ Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jamaal Williams, and D’Andre Swift, the Lions have arguably the most-dangerous group of offensive weapons in the NFL. And QB Jared Goff (4,214 yards, 29 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) has proven that he has the talent to maximize their potential.
The freezing weather at Lambeau could put a slight damper on the passing game, but Dan Campbell is likely to emphasize the run game regardless. Green Bay’s defense ranks sixth in the NFL in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus, but a meager 25th against the run.
Detroit has posted the third-best against-the-spread record in the league this season (11-5) and they will cap it off with another ATS victory in the regular-season finale.
Pick: Lions +5 (-110)
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