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But if Mr Putin and Mr Kim meet this September, the latter will have leverage. China will not jeopardise its larger, more important relationship with Western importers to help Moscow too much. But North Korea has few relationships to jeopardise. It is already ostracised and has nothing to lose.
North Korea could conceivably direct its defence industrial base to produce conventional weapons for Russia for a while, given that its primary defence is now its nuclear weapons. A politically unconstrained supplier will be attractive to Mr Putin, and he will likely bargain for it.
This is the reason the US has publicly worried about the summit. It fears that Mr Putin, in his desperation, will trade away major Russian technologies which Moscow has previously feared to give Pyongyang. North Korea will probably deal aggressively to acquire these technologies.
Our knowledge of North Korea’s WMD limitations is mixed, but a few likely areas for trade include submarines, missile guidance and re-entry technology.
North Korea’s nuclear missiles are all terrestrially based now and sit on gantries and road-mobile launchers. They would be far more likely to survive a US-South Korean disarming strike if they were on submarines.
With targets on the other side of the world, North Korean missiles can likely reach the mainland US but it is not clear if Pyongyang has the ability to direct its missiles to specific points. The re-entry of a nuclear warhead into the atmosphere – after its journey through space – is very stressful and again, it is unclear if North Korea has mastered this.
WHAT NEXT?
Russian engagement with North Korea in such a swap would be a massive violation of the sanctions on North Korea. Mr Putin does not care about that, but the West will likely respond with yet more sanctions on Russia because of it. The US has also threatened retaliation against North Korea, but that is harder given how isolated North Korea already is.
The biggest response, instead, will likely be stepped up Western support for Ukraine in the war. The war is increasingly an arms race. Can Ukraine destroy enough Russian equipment to facilitate a breakthrough?
Russia cannot outproduce the West, so it is shopping in North Korea. The West will likely respond in kind.
Robert Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) is a professor of political science at Pusan National University.
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