Up to 1.7 million people could be living with dementia in England and Wales by 2040 – over 40% more than previously forecast – finds a new UCL-led study.
Previous studies, based on data up to 2010, showed that dementia incidence had declined in high-income countries. However, the new research, published in
Based on this estimated upward incidence trend, researchers project that the number of people with dementia in England and Wales may be significantly higher than expected in the future.
Projected Increase in Dementia Cases
According to previous research in England and Wales, the number of people living with dementia was previously predicted to increase by 57% from 0.77 million in 2016 to 1.2 million in 2040.
However, the new research, funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council, suggests that this figure could be as high as 1.7 million.
Analysis of Longitudinal Data
In the new study, researchers examined nine waves of data from people over the age of 50 and living in private households in England between 2002 and 2019, from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA).
They found that the dementia incidence rate (a measure that considers what percentage of the population in each age group has dementia) decreased by 28.8% between 2002 and 2008. However, it increased again by 25.2% between 2008 and 2016.
A similar non-linear pattern was observed across subgroups according to age, sex, and educational attainment.
Most notably, researchers found that disparities in the rate of dementia incidence was increasing between education groups, as there was both a slower decline in 2002-2008 and a faster increase after 2008 in participants with lower educational attainment.
Implications of Increased Dementia Incidence
If the incidence rate increases as fast as what was observed between 2008 to 2016 (a 2.8% increase per year) researchers predict that the number of people with dementia in England and Wales is set to increase to 1.7 million by 2040 – approximately twice the number in 2023. This compares to an estimate of one million people if dementia rates had continued to decline as previously reported.
Lead author, Dr. Yuntao Chen (UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care), said: “It is shocking to think that the number of people living with dementia by 2040 may be up to 70% higher than if dementia incidence had continued to decline.
“Not only will this have a devastating effect on the lives of those involved but it will also put a considerably larger burden on health and social care than current forecasts predict.
“Continued monitoring of the incidence trend will be crucial in shaping social care policy.”
Beyond Aging Population: Rising Onset Rates
Although an increase in dementia cases has often been attributed to an aging population, the researchers also found that the rate of dementia onset within older age groups is also increasing.
Principal investigator, Professor Eric Brunner (UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care), said: “Our research has exposed that dementia is likely to be a more urgent policy problem than previously recognised – even if the current trend continues for just a few years.
“We have found that not only is the aging population a major driver of the trend in England and Wales but also the number of people developing dementia within older age groups is increasing.
“We don’t know how long this pattern will continue but the UK needs to be prepared so we can ensure that everyone affected, whatever their financial circumstances, is able to access the help and support that they need.”
Alzheimer’s Society’s Perspective
James White, DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(23)00214-1