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SEOUL, South Korea — With relations deteriorating with its nearest neighbors, China has stepped up efforts farther afield in search of support and diplomatic backup.
The dire state of relations between China and the Philippines was made clear this week after details of tense Wednesday talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Philippine counterpart Enrique Manalo were released. The two have clashed repeatedly over China‘s aggressive sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.
“China-Philippines relationship now stands at a crossroads, with its future yet to be decided,” Mr. Wang told Mr. Manalo in telephone discussions, according to Chinese media CGTN. “The Philippine side must act with caution.”
He warned the Philippines not to collude with “ill-intentioned external forces” — a likely reference to Manila’s treaty ally, the U.S. — while claiming it has provoked maritime incidents and undermined China’s lawful rights. An international tribunal ruled against China’s South China Sea claims in 2016 but Beijing has refused to acknowledge the verdict.
Mr. Wang urged disputes be resolved by dialogue, while Mr. Manalo characterized the telephone talks as “frank and candid.” Relations between the countries deteriorated following the election of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. in 2022, who reversed the pro-China policies of previous Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.
High-profile clashes have played out in disputed waters off the Philippines in recent weeks. Those conflicts have seen Chinese Coast Guards and maritime militia — weaponized fishing fleets — ramming and firing water cannons at Philippine vessels.
The intentions of Mr. Wang — who reportedly requested the talks — are unclear, analysts said.
Alex Neill, a Singapore-based analyst of Chinese security matters and a fellow at Pacific Forum, said it was not clear if the Chinese minister was trying to cool the crisis or escalate China‘s claims, but added, “My gut feeling is it is probably the latter.”
China‘s official press has dismissed a U.S.-led coalition formed this week to protect maritime traffic in the Red Sea from attacks from pro-Iran, Yemen-based Houthi rebels as a “Band-Aid” given the larger regional crisis, but “freedom of navigation” has become a mantra of the U.S. Navy in repeated challenges to China‘s claims regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.
If tensions in the South China Sea — a mass of disputed shoals, reefs and islands — escalate from Coast Guard clashes to full-scale naval activity, the Pentagon’s new “Operation Prosperity Guardian” could provide a template for a similar Washington-led coalition in East Asia. There, governments in the strategic “First Island Chain” — the arc of islands closest to the Chinese mainland encompassing Japan, Taiwan, portions of the Philippines and Indonesia — are already leaning heavily toward Washington.
Farther afield
But now there are signs China has begun focusing farther afield on countries where relations have not been so antagonistic. In recent days, senior Chinese leaders have engaged with the communist nations on China’s northeastern and southwestern flanks.
On Monday — the same day North Korea test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile — Mr. Wang hosted Pyongyang’s Deputy Foreign Minister Pak Yong Ho in Beijing. While little information about their meeting was released, it was reportedly friendly, with Beijing offering to upgrade cooperation and communications.
China has long been North Korea’s core supplier of food and fuel. In recent months, North Korea’s ties with Russia have tightened, with Moscow positioned to supply both grain and power and potentially reduce the latter’s reliance upon Beijing.
Still, Chinese leaders apparently have concluded that Beijing is positioned to expand its influence, as heavily sanctioned Russia joins long-isolated North Korea as a dependency.
“I don’t think China is too concerned,” said Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow at Seoul’s Asan Institute. “China can dominate relations with either party.”
The North Korean visit closely followed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s two-day trip to Vietnam last week. During that visit — his first in six years — he visited the mausoleum of state founder Ho Chi Minh and was received by leaders of the ruling Vietnamese Community Party.
Party-party ties are believed to be strong, and the two signed 36 agreements in areas including infrastructure, security and trade. Detailed content of most agreements was not released.
There is much to play for in Vietnam, which in September hosted President Biden for a warm visit that included deals on semiconductors and minerals and elevated the U.S. to the same high diplomatic status extended to China and Russia.
As global manufacturers exit China, Vietnam is emerging as a high-tech investment destination. Vietnam has traditionally obtained its arms from Russia, which, due to its war in Ukraine, is constrained from significant arms sales, opening up opportunities.
But China-Vietnam ties are clouded by simmering territorial disputes in the South China Sea. In Hanoi, the two countries agreed to establish a maritime crisis hotline, and possibly operate joint naval patrols. It’s still unclear, however, whether the two countries, which fought a war in 1979, are fully on the same page.
“A nice gloss is painted over these events as the two parties would like to paint a rosy picture of their relationship,” said Mr. Neill. “But truth be told, they are rivals — historic rivals. … There is too much weight laid on party-party relations.”
China’s dwindling peripheral influence
The end of the COVID pandemic left Beijing with significant diplomatic ground to make up: Pro-American administrations currently hold office to its east, in South Korea and Japan, and to its south, in Taiwan and the Philippines. The Biden administration has moved to strengthen ties with all four nations.
Regional players in East Asia, jittery about Chinese assertiveness, are weaving a web of multi- and “mini-lateral” security ties that extend as far as Australia and even the U.K. The result: In the strategic First Island Chain, China is losing political ground.
Japan is fortifying its southern Ryukyu islands. The Pentagon this year obtained permission for expanded rotational troop deployments to the Philippines, notably in northern Luzon.
Both locations flank Taiwan and cover naval choke points flanking the island democracy China has vowed one to take over. On January 13, Taiwan voters go to the polls, with the anti-Beijing ruling party widely expected to win a third consecutive term for the presidency.
The coming year may also post headaches for Chinese diplomats.
“The U.S. and U.K. are demonstrating they are willing to intervene in the Red Sea against the Houthis,” said Mr. Neill. “That sends a message to the South China Sea, where there is a potential for unmanaged escalation.”
North Korea — constantly talking up untested tactical nuclear weapons — is also looking restive and uneasy over its dependence on Beijing.
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