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Second, and perhaps more importantly, the West continues to dither on aid to Ukraine. The aid pipeline should, by now, be smooth and coordinated – as the United States aid pipeline to Afghans fighting the Soviet Union in the 1980s was by the mid-80s.
Instead, Western aid packages continue to arrive in piecemeal, erratic fashion in amounts too small for planning major initiatives. Two years into the war, big donors, such as Germany, France and the US, continue to have protracted domestic debates over every new package, slowing down delivery and creating much uncertainty in Ukraine on what will be delivered and when.
Perhaps most surprising is the rise of pro-Russia sentiment in right wing groups of the West, most obviously supporters of former US president Donald Trump. These “populists” have blossomed into a major domestic constraint on further aid. Indeed, they may even seek a Russian victory, because it suits their anti-NATO, nativistic beliefs.
Given the West’s 50-year struggle against the Soviet Union, this rapid pro-Putin pivot among Western conservatives has been remarkable. The upshot is that even though the West has, easily, the resources to sponsor Ukraine for years, it lacks the political resolve.
Indeed, if Mr Trump returns to the US presidency in the fall, he will likely cut off Ukraine aid completely, which will support a Russian victory.
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