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REAGAN NATIONAL DEFENSE FORUM — In a departure from some other recent polls, Americans still generally support Washington providing military aid to Ukraine, according to the new 2023 Reagan National Defense Survey.
Over the past handful of years, the annual defense and national security poll is released before defense leaders and lawmakers descended on Simi Valley, Calif. to discuss related issues. This year’s survey and weekend event, kicking off Friday, comes as Congress debates whether it should green light a White House plan to continue providing significant aid to Ukraine, and if it should tie constraints on military aid for Israel.
Some previous recent polls had suggested American public support for aid to Ukraine was faltering. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from October, for instance, found that only 41 percent of respondents believed the US “should provide weapons to Ukraine.”
But the Reagan National Defense Survey found that 59 percent of Americans still support sending military aid to Kyiv, roughly the same level as a June poll and one from November 2022. The poll does show a divide between political parties with Democrat support hovering at 75 percent, while Republican support hangs at 49 percent.
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“Despite the kind of media narrative, or what you might expect watching the debates on Ukraine aid in the US Congress, there is not waning support for Ukraine. And, in fact, there is steady and strong and consistent support for Ukraine,” Ronald Reagan Institute Policy Director Rachel Hoff told reporters during a Tuesday call.
The institute’s poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw and Company Research, is designed to guide some of the dialogue this weekend, and a full panel is devoted to some of its findings.
Hoff said the Reagan National Defense Survey pollsters give respondents more leeway in responding to the question: “Overall, do you support or oppose sending US military aid to Ukraine?” That, she said, could account for some of the discrepancies with other surveys.
Regardless of the why, Ronald Reagan Institute Director Roger Zakheim surmised that this poll seems to suggest that while some lawmakers will continue voicing concerns about sending additional weapons and dollars to Ukraine, there is unlikely to be a big dip in support for the war inside the halls of Congress, even as the debate wages on. President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, for their part, have repeatedly said that the US will back Kyiv for “as long as it takes.”
The GOP-led House has not yet moved on the White House’s $105 billion supplemental budget request submitted in October that is dominated by military investments for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific. The spending bill stalled in the chamber, in part, over division over Ukraine spending and the desire for additional dollars at the US southern border with Mexico. (The Reagan poll found 71 percent of Americans back assistance to Israel, while in a separate question, 30 percent said the US is not doing enough to support Palestinians.)
Republican Sen. Mike Rounds, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told Breaking Defense at the Halifax International Security Forum earlier this month that he fully expects that package to pass with Ukraine funding. But additional dollars to “defend” the southern border may be required to get it over the finish line.
“There is strong support for Ukraine: It’s just the question … of how can I go back home and tell my people I’m gonna send some additional money to Ukraine, while at the same time … we’ve got literally an invasion coming across and this administration is doing nothing about it,” he added.
As for concern about that border, when the Reagan National Defense Survey pollsters asked respondents an open-ended question about the most important problem facing the US today, only 4 percent cited border security. When asked if they favor sending the US military into Mexico to counter, and if necessary attack, drug cartels, 41 percent said they are in favor, 46 percent would oppose and the remainder said they did not know.
As for where the US should focus its military forces, the Middle East reclaimed the top spot with 31 percent, while East Asia (China, Japan, North Korea and South Korea) trailed behind with 25 percent, and Europe (to include Russia) garnered 19 percent.
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