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RISKS IN GOING AFTER IRAN
The other US option is to go after the main sponsor behind the militias – Iran. While Tehran has denied any involvement in the Jordan attack and others, none of its proxies in Syria, Iraq or Yemen would be able to attack the US without the military support provided by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Some have said that going after Iran might be a way to reassert US deterrence and force Tehran to curb its support to its proxies. This was the logic behind the US killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, after repeated attacks against US troops in Iraq: It showed Tehran that Washington had no problem with playing a game of chicken.
This option is, of course, risky. Iran has already stated that an attack against its regime would be deemed a “red line”. Such a move might precipitate the regional war the White House has tried hard to prevent. But over the longer term, those calling for stronger action say forgoing this option carries an arguably higher cost. Tolerating a repeat of the hundreds of attacks thus far without inflicting severe punishment erodes US credibility and may not even prevent a broader war.
Complicating matters is the fact that US domestic politics will come into play. Less than a year before he faces a difficult re-election campaign, Mr Biden will be wary of looking weak in relation to his presumptive challenger, Donald Trump, and Republican anti-Iran hawks.
Mr Biden will surely want to avoid the fate of Jimmy Carter, the Democrat president whose re-election campaign in 1980 was derailed because of a crisis also sparked by the Iranian regime.
When push comes to shove, the US administration will most likely go for an option halfway between the two exposed here. It will aim to “escalate to de-escalate”, in order to send strong messages, both at home and in Tehran.
What happens next remains uncertain, but it is worth considering if the White House should reconsider its stance of restraint.
Jean-Loup Samaan is a senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore.
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