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Unlike a regular election, Iowa’s caucuses require voters to gather in person in small groups at churches, schools and community centres, where they cast secret ballots after speeches from campaign representatives.
Iowa Republican Party chair Jeff Kaufmann said those speeches could play an outsized role this time because candidates had to cancel so many events due to the weather. Caucus meetings will start at 7pm (12pm Tuesday AEDT) and results are expected a few hours after that.
Another potential wild card: an unknown number of the state’s Democratic voters have registered as Republicans to try to influence the caucus results.
“I just want to be able to look back and say I did what I could to keep Donald Trump from getting elected,” said Toni Van Voorhis, 65, one such crossover voter, who plans to back Haley.
Iowa Democrats will hold caucuses of their own to conduct party business, but they will not vote today for other presidential hopefuls because the party has reshuffled its nominating calendar to put states with more diverse populations ahead of Iowa this year. They will cast their ballots by mail, with the results to be released in March.
There was record turnout at the 2016 Republican caucus, with about 187,000 votes cast, or approximately 29 per cent of the state’s registered Republican voters. Republican turnout was closer to 18 per cent in 2012. Trump’s grip on his most loyal supporters may give him an edge if the freezing conditions convince some voters to stay home.
“Trump is proven to get things done,” said Austin Rasch, 30, a general contractor from Fort Dodge who predicted strong turnout. “It’s Iowa. We’re used to cold.”
Iowa has historically played an outsized role in presidential campaigns due to its early spot on the campaign calendar.
But in 2008, 2012 and 2016 – the last three competitive races – the winner of Iowa’s Republican caucuses did not go on to secure the nomination.
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Once a political battleground, the state is now seen as reliably Republican in presidential elections.
Trump has maintained a decisive lead in national polls despite facing four separate indictments, including state and federal prosecutions centred on his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Biden.
Trump has continued to claim falsely that Biden’s 2020 victory was the result of voter fraud.
Reuters
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