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“Putin says, ‘My authority needs to be demonstrated – Surovikin has to go and Prigozhin has to be killed’.” In Putin’s neo-feudal Russia, says Wilson, everything is forgivable except disloyalty.
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But if the luridly spectacular airborne murder of Putin’s former ally and offsider is all about demonstrating Putin’s strength, one analyst poses this puzzle: “In the end, if Vladimir Putin is so powerful, why didn’t he arrest Prigozhin?” asks Pavel Luzin from the US think tank Centre for European Policy Analysis.
Instead of going through the farce of pretending it was merely an accident, why didn’t Putin move against Prigozhin openly, demonstrating his authority by arresting and trying him? Was he nervous about the reaction he’d meet from the Russian public or Prigozhin’s allies? Perhaps it’s a sign that Putin is not entirely confident that his writ would carry.
Tesch suggested another explanation – that Putin wanted to demonstrate that “I alone decide” rather than delegating authority to a court.
Putin’s future will be decided by three factors, according to Wilson. First will be the fate of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Second will be how the Russian people feel about their standard of living, which is worsening for most as the war grinds on.
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Third, he says, will be the Trump factor. If Trump returns to the White House at next year’s US election, he’d be expected to curtail US support, and, therefore, NATO support, for Ukraine. This could only improve Russia’s odds of success.
In the meantime, Putin is restricted in leaving Russia because of the warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court for war crimes; he didn’t travel to a summit in South Africa this week because its government couldn’t guarantee his liberty.
And he remains on the defensive at home, wielding death and fear to hold power while pretending he’s not, trapped by his benighted war, in a prison of his own making.
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