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With a longer hull and possible vertical launch cells, the new design is
further evidence of China’s rapid submarine developments
first time. Whether the recently spotted submarine is a further iteration of
an existing class, or if it’s an entirely new design, it reflects the rapid
pace of development in the country’s submarine program, which features
increasingly advanced and innovative nuclear- and conventionally powered
types, according to an analysis by Warzone .
I recently acquired this interesting image of the shipyard from 26 April 2024.
On the left, you can see what appears to be a freshly-launched Hangor II-class submarine, the 1st of 8 being built for Pakistan.
You can also see the other, possibly new class of boat. pic.twitter.com/txZO8m8fDe
— Tom Shugart (@tshugart3) July 28, 2024
Tom Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Centre for a New American
Security (CNAS) think tank and retired U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer,
was first to notice the new boat, at Wuchang Shipyard, in Wuhan. The yard is
predominantly associated with the construction of variants of the Type 039A
conventionally powered Chinese subs.
A satellite image of the shipyard acquired recently by Shugart, but dating
from April 26, 2024, shows the new submarine design, as well as an apparent
Hangor-II class submarine, which is being built for Pakistan, and which is
known to have been launched in that same month.
In his analysis, Shugart writes: “Comparing the Hangor with images of earlier
[Type] 039A class boats — and the new boat — the difference is plain to see.
The new boat appears substantially longer, and looking at multiple images of
it, [it] also appears to have an X-stern, a feature not seen before on any
Chinese submarine.”
Using imagery analysis, Shugart estimates that the new submarine design is
around 272-279 feet long overall, compared to around 253 feet overall for the
Type 039A Yuan class. The Type 039s have a displacement of approximately 3,600
tons.
Shugart had previously seen unusual activity at Wuchang Shipyard, which he had
assessed was related to work on a “presumably new-construction” Type 039
variant. In fact, this mystery boat — which you can read more about here — was
apparently the new X-stern design, seen in the imagery from late April in the
same berth. However, its precise relationship to the Type 039 remains unclear.
Subsequent satellite imagery, dated June 15, shows that the new submarine had
left its berth, leaving the Hangor-II there. The berth where the new boat
previously was is still surrounded by cranes.
By early July, the crane activity had come to an end, but what appears to be
the Hangor-II is still there. This suggests the new submarine has been
completed and may way well have already commenced sea trials or has otherwise
been moved elsewhere for trial work.
offered some thoughts
about the new submarine design on his blog.
Looking at the extended hull length, Sutton suggests that one reason for this
may be the addition of vertical launch system (VLS) cells.
This feature is still extremely rare on conventionally powered submarines, but
there are some precedents. There is growing speculation that Israel’s new
Dakar class of submarines will have provision for a VLS. There is even a
possibility that the last of Israel’s previous Dolphin II class subs, INS
Drakon, might also be equipped with VLS cells. In South Korea, meanwhile, the
Dosan Ahn Changho class diesel-electric attack submarine has a capacity for
six submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) tubes, although these can also
be alternatively loaded with cruise missiles.
At this stage, we can’t be certain that the lengthened hull of the new Chinese
design accommodates VLS cells, but it’s certainly an intriguing possibility.
VLS cells could be used to launch additional cruise missiles, for extra
overall capacity, while also freeing up the torpedo tubes for their primary
weapons. New types of missiles might also be better accommodated by VLS cells,
perhaps even including hypersonic weapons that would likely be too large for
the torpedo tubes, or potentially smaller types of ballistic missiles, as in
the South Korean Dosan Ahn Changho class. China is already a pioneer in
ship-launched ballistic missiles and it’s conceivable that such weapons could
also find their way onto submarines.
At the same time, the additional hull length — as well as the new rudder
configuration — could also be connected to some new kind of propulsion
arrangement. This could potentially be based on the same kind of lithium
batteries used in Japan’s latest Soryu class submarines, which you can read
about here. These batteries provide increased endurance at high speeds when
submerged, quicker charging and longer battery life, and reduced maintenance
requirements.
Other possibilities behind the lengthened hull could be additional internal
volume to accommodate surveillance equipment or different kinds of special
mission gear, perhaps related to covert operations including
infiltration/exfiltration.
What’s beyond doubt, however, is the X-form rudder on the new Chinese design.
As we have discussed in the past, an X-form rudder configuration provides
improved manoeuvrability, efficiency, and safety, and also helps reduce the
acoustic signature across significant parts of the submarine’s operating
envelope compared to the more traditional cruciform system. The x-form
configuration also makes particularly good sense for operations in the South
China Sea and other littoral areas, as do conventionally powered submarines in
general.
While an X-form rudder configuration has become increasingly popular and is
now found on other submarine designs around the globe, this is the first time
that it’s known to have been included on a Chinese crewed submarine. Some
Chinese extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles (XLUUV) have featured these
kinds of rudders, however.
As mentioned, the new submarine could be the first of an entirely new class,
or it could be another member of the Type 039 or Yuan class.
This major class already includes several subclasses, with the most recent to
have been positively confirmed being the Type 039C. The War Zone has
previously looked at the Type 039C in detail and it’s noticeable for featuring
an unusual new sail design, raked along its leading edge and which flares out
toward the top. There have also been suggestions that the revised sail design
is related to a sonar or communications system, with signs of a housing
compartment on the upper part of the rudder that could well house a towed
array sonar.
The overall appearance of the Type 039C is very similar to the sail on
Sweden’s next-generation A26 Blekinge class submarine and is very likely
intended to improve the boat’s stealthy characteristics. Already mass-produced
are the preceding Type-039A/B class, an impressive class of modern submarines,
21 of which are in Chinese service, according to U.S. Navy figures, while
modified versions are also being built for export to Pakistan and Thailand.
Among the key advantages of the Type-039s — at least the A/B subclasses — over
earlier Chinese designs is their presumed use of air-independent propulsion
(AIP) technology, something that The War Zone has examined in detail in the
past. The Chinese submarines are thought to use an engine similar to the
Stirling-type design, in which an auxiliary engine burns liquid oxygen and
diesel to drive electrical generators that can be used for either propulsion
or charging the batteries. Compared to a traditional diesel-electric boat, an
AIP submarine can remain submerged for much longer — multiple days at a time —
without needing to surface or use a snorkel.
Otherwise, the Type 039A/B boats are widely understood to be some of the
quietest submarines in active Chinese service, while the Type 039C may be
quieter still.
While the exact purpose and capabilities of the new submarine design are
unclear, its appearance does point to the fast pace of activity in China’s
underwater warfare realm.
In the past, we have examined China’s prodigious naval shipbuilding program
and while there has been considerable focus on its aircraft carriers and
amphibious assault ships, it’s clear that work on advanced new submarines is
a priority, too.
It’s especially notable that these submarine developments are following a
two-pronged path, with both nuclear- and conventionally-powered designs, in
stark contrast to the all-nuclear U.S. Navy.
China clearly has recognized that continuing to build conventionally powered
submarines offers critical advantages, including lower costs, contributing
to a fast-growing submarine force. At the same time, these kinds of
submarines — especially the more advanced ones now in production — can also
be quieter than their nuclear-powered counterparts during certain modes of
operation, and are better suited to operations in littoral and shallower
waters. These points are of key importance for future contingencies in the
South China Sea, for example. In other ways, of course, conventionally
powered boats are far more limited than nuclear-powered subs.
Time will tell whether the newly appeared design is a one-off or if will
become part of China’s prodigious submarine-building program, which
continues to introduce advanced hulls, like the Type 039s, to replace aging
diesel-electric designs.
At the very least, the appearance of the new submarine should provide a
reminder of the growing threat that China’s underwater fleet poses to the
U.S., Indian Navies and other naval powers.
(With Reporting By WarZone)
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