From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
There is a lot of concern about cloudiness obscuring the sun during next Monday’s total eclipse.
Interestingly it turns out that such eclipse-viewing problems are increasing as the earth warms up due to increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
A recent study in the Journal of Climate Statistics by Professor Wade Rocston of the University of Western East New Brunswick documents a significant (23%) increasing trend in cloud-obscured solar eclipses.
The origin of the increasing cloud cover is clear according the Professor Rocston. Increasing CO2 leads to global warming. Such warming results in more evaporation and the moisture content of the air increases with temperature (see below). This leads to more clouds and thus greater obscuration of solar eclipses.
The moisture content of air increases with temperature, which leads to more clouds
To give you some perspective on this issue, the first study documenting the increased clouds in a warming world is found in a 1986 paper by A. Henderson-Sellers:
This ground-breaking study found increased springtime clouds over Texas and the rest of the eclipse path (see below, cross-hatched shading indicates increasing clouds):
According to the ICCC, the International Committee on Climate Change, which includes leading climate scientists from around the world, solar eclipses have become 24% less visible due to climate change-related cloudiness increases. Their analysis suggests that if CO2 concentrations remain at their current level, the associated warming and increased cloudiness will result in nearly 46% of total eclipse events being obscured by clouds by the end of the century.
The inability to see total eclipses is one of the lesser-known impacts of global warming, but it is areal loss for astronomers and the rest of us. I look forward to a detailed discussion of this unfortunate situation in a future article by the Seattle Times ClimateLab reporters.
Finally, happy April 1.
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