Essay by Eric Worrall
… But people should be eating more plants anyway.
NZ farmers worry about ‘carbon leakage’ if they have to pay for emissions, but they could benefit from playing the long game
Published: April 12, 2023 5.29am AEST
Anita WrefordProfessor Applied Economics, Lincoln University, New Zealand
John Tobias SaundersResearch Officer, Lincoln University, New Zealand
Meike GuentherResearch Officer, Lincoln University, New Zealand…
New Zealand is indeed the first country to investigate introducing a price on agricultural greenhouse gas emissions.
The most recent pricing proposals would require farmers to pay a levy on their agricultural emissions. To begin with, only 5% of emissions would be priced, with proposals to reduce the 95% free allocation gradually over time.
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But Aotearoa is already one of the most efficient producers of meat and dairy products globally. If we reduce emissions here, will that not simply lead to other, less efficient countries picking up the lost production, while our farmers pay the price?
This idea is known as “carbon leakage” and is often used as an argument against any domestic policy that could result in reduced agricultural production. The issue is important as New Zealand depends heavily on agricultural exports. In 2022, of all merchandise trade, 65% were agricultural commodities.
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This shows leakage may occur, with reductions in production of New Zealand dairy products. But global meat and dairy production by 2050 would be considerably lower than without the policy, which would have a positive overall impact on the climate.
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What can I say – socialists, green or otherwise. Always the disdain for farmers – impoverishing and wrecking agri-businesses because it serves some higher social goal, like forcing more collectivisation on the Kulaks, or because making food production more difficult has “a positive overall impact on the climate”.
They always find a way to mess up food production.
There is nothing inevitable about us all switching to vegetable based diets.
A mass vegetarian diet would be a death sentence for millions of people. Many people, including myself, have metabolisms which cannot cope with carbohydrates and vegetable rich diets, we have to eat lots of meat. Only by switching to a very protein rich diet have I been able to control my weight and restore my health. I’m not alone – my doctor and my friends put me on to the diet, with the advice “meat is your friend”.
So what will happen to New Zealand if meat production is shut down by carbon taxes?
I would like to say they would simply import meat, but importing meat implies a functioning export economy, to earn the foreign currency required to pay for the imported meat. All New Zealand export businesses are being impacted by this carbon tax madness.
If this anti-business climate insanity continues, pretty soon New Zealand’s only remaining viable foreign currency income will be from high margin businesses, like offshore IT services, or offering sex tours to rich Asians. And even those economic activities will suffer the crushing impact of New Zealand’s new carbon taxes.