WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? REST OF WINTER OUTLOOK:
If you recall in the early fall 2022, I put out a post here wagering my “house and car on a December snow event or two.” Thankfully, that happened and I can keep my Jeep, LOL. Joking aside, we are still in a La Nina winter pattern. Time for another long shots prediction into the ‘magic 8 ball’ of weather.
If you forgot, La Nina winter seasons here are notorious for WARMTH, SEVERE STORMS, and ICE STORMS/EVENTS here.
Check out the chart above this text of all La Nina winter’s since 1995. Every single one had a “notable severe weather event or outbreak” — meaning multiple tornadoes (3 or more) or a strong/deadly tornado (EF2+) or wind damage (75+MPH gust) episode. 6 of the 12 (50%) had an ice event.
Looking ahead at the data through February 2023, I think Jan. 2023 starts mild and wet/stormy through about the 10th-14th. Signals for a major cold shot, or two tamer ones the 2nd half of the month with a big wintry event possible (leans more ice/mix, but TBD). But month ends up warmer than avg. February 2023 also favors several (more than 3) days 60+ and a severe threat day, or two, given statistical analysis. While I can not RULE OUT another major snow event, odds are against it.
I would like to add some winter seasons of which I have been monitoring behind the scenes at work since this fall. They are the winters of: 1999-2000, 2007-2008, 2010-2011, and last winter. These winters all strongly resemble the northern hemispheric pattern we are in now, and came out of from late summer and fall. And also being in La Nina. Below are the results of those January and Februarys those winter seasons. Observe, most had a ton of warm spells, little or no snow, and a severe weather episode.
Jan. 2022: 3.7″ snow, 1 day 60°+, EF2 tornado Hopkinsville KY
Feb. 2022: 1.3″ snow, 8 days 60°+, EF0 tornado & a microburst
Jan. 2011: 4.3″ snow, 0 days 60°+
Feb. 2011: 9.0″ snow, 8 days 60°+, tornado outbreak Feb. 24/27
Jan. 2008: 1.7″ snow, 5 days 60°+, several EF1/EF0 tornadoes
Feb. 2008: 1.6″ snow, 6 days 60°+, deadly tornadoes Feb. 5
Jan. 2000: 2.4″ snow, 7 days 60°+, deadly tornado outbreak
Feb. 2000: 0.7″ snow, 12 days 60°F, 4 days 70°+, 75MPH microburst
I will add two other “wildcard” winters resemble the current epic cold we just had in Dec. 2022, although they get an * asterisk because those winters were El Nino’s and NOT La Nina’s. Here is how the following Jan and Feb finished those years. Interestingly, fits the narrative of La Nina winter analogs. The cold spell we just had was the worst in the mid-south for many since the epic 1989 cold snap.
Jan. 2005: 0 snow, 9 days 60°+
Feb. 2005: 0 snow, 9 days 60°+
Jan. 1990: 0.1″ snow, 9 days 60°+
Feb.1990: 1.0″ measurable snow, 11 days 60°+
So time for my next prediction “wager” to y’all. Combined between January and February 2023, we will have 10 or MORE days 60°F (the average historically for all Jan or Feb months combined is 10, since 1937). At least 1.5″ of additional snow, and 1 day that produces severe weather. May I be flat out wrong after all these hours of research? Sure. Am I about to get lucky or really onto this? I hope, but who knows. That’s why I say meteorology is like golf. Because once you think you have it figured out, it humbles you and makes you realize nobody does.