From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
One colleague contacted me regarding his MP, who is vice-chair of the Climate All Party Parliamentary Group. She supports the Net Zero agenda and agrees with plans to massively increase offshore wind capacity.
He asked me to prepare a summary of the “No” case, to put alongside her version.
I have therefore prepared a Factsheet, which I show below.
It might come in handy if anybody else wishes to grill their MP!
OFFSHORE WIND POWER FACTSHEET
COSTS
- The new Administrative Strike Price for offshore wind is £73/MWh at 2012 prices. This equals £100.27 at today’s prices. By the time new projects are commissioned they will be much higher because of indexation. (1)
- The market price of electricity was £78.22/MWh in October, according to OFCOM. (2)
- According to the latest DESNZ data, the levelised cost of CCGT gas-fired electricity is currently £54/MWh, excl Carbon Tax. (3)
- New offshore wind power is clearly much more expensive than gas, even before taking into account the extra billions in wider system costs – system balancing, standby generation, upgrades to transmission grids, constraint payments, etc.
- Existing offshore wind power is even more expensive, averaging £176/MWh this year for those generators with CfDs. (4)
- Currently, subsidies to offshore wind are costing electricity users £4.8 billion a year. (5)
- The cost of offshore wind power is so high that many projects off the US east coast have been cancelled because they are not viable
- Because CfDs are inflation indexed each year, these costs will continue to rise. This will lock households into permanently high and increasing electricity bills.
UNRELIABILITY
According to research, wind power, (both onshore and offshore) produces less than 20% of its capacity for 20 weeks a year, and less than 10% for 9 weeks. (6)
Under government plans, all power will be decarbonised by 2035, leaving us with the following capacity in broad terms under current plans:
Offshore Wind – 56 GW
Onshore Wind – 28 GW
Solar Power – 70 GW
Nuclear – 5 GW
Biomass/Hydro – 10 GW
Acccording to the National Grid’s Future Scenarios, peak demand will rise to 98 GW in 2035, because of the electrification of transport and heating. (7)
When wind power is only supplying 10% of its capacity, there will clearly be a massive shortage of power, in the order of 70 GW. (Bear in mind that solar power only supplies 3% of its capacity in winter).
REFERENCES
- DESNZ – https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/contracts-for-difference-cfd-allocation-round-6-core-parameters
- OFCOM – https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/wholesale-market-indicators
- DESNZ – https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electricity-generation-costs-2023#full-publication-update-history
- LCCC- https://dp.lowcarboncontracts.uk/dataset/actual-cfd-generation-and-avoided-ghg-emissions
- Notalotofpeopleknowthat – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/11/17/offshore-wind-costs/
- Capell Aris – http://www.iesisenergy.org/agp/Aris-Wind-paper.pdf
- Future Energy Scenarios – https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios/documents