The Week That Was: 2024 06-15 (June 15, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “And it is of paramount importance, in order to make progress, that we recognize this ignorance and this doubt. Because we have the doubt, we then propose looking in new directions for new ideas. The rate of the development of science is not the rate at which you make observations alone but, much more important, the rate at which you create new things to test.” – Richard Feynman, The Meaning of It All: Thoughts of a Citizen-Scientist (1998)
Number of the Week: 30 Seconds
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The slides used by John Clauser in his presentation to the ICSF and CLINTEL are discussed further. Early work on what Clauser calls the Cloud Thermostat Hypothesis is discussed. Calculation by Professors Lindzen, Happer, and van Wijngaarden of what it means for temperatures if the US goes to Net Zero are shown. The possibility of popular uprising against Net Zero in Europe is discussed as well as the magic juice that will keep the lights on in New York City if the state’s Net Zero Plan is implemented. Disturbing news from the EIA is presented as well as neat definitions from The Devil’s Dictionary of Climate Change.
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John Clauser IV: Jim O’Brien of the Irish Climate Science Forum sent the slides John Clauser used in his presentation in May. This makes it easier for readers to double check his work and TWTWs effort of transcribing the contents of the slides. To TWTW, the slides of particular importance in Clauser’s criticism of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) particularly the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) are stated (the slide number for the entire set is stated and the slide on a particular subtopic is given):
Slide 21 – What is the basic power-imbalance calculation? It is really quite simple.
Slide 34 – Power imbalance analysis by Wild et al. (2019) and AR6 (2021)– imbalance and error bars fudged – slide 1 on that topic.
Here Clauser asserts that the data in Wild et al. require a cloudy-sky albedo of about 0.36, while direct measurements indicate a value of about 0.8. Further, the Wild et al. diagram is copied directly by the IPCC in AR6, except additional fudges are added. If Clouser is correct, this is a major error in AR6 that impacts any conclusions from the report.
Slide 35 – Power imbalance analysis by Wild et al. (2019) and AR6 (2021) – imbalance and error bars fudged – slide 2 on that topic
Clauser makes correct calculations of error range for net power imbalance (square each error [uncertainty] range, sum them, take the average, then take the square root of the average.). The error range exceeds the calculated value; therefore, the value is not statistically significantly different than zero and it may be negative.
Here it is important to emphasize that these are not Clauser’s numbers but are IPCC AR6 numbers which are incorrectly calculated. Upon correction, the numbers show no power imbalance and no warming. Consequently, any conclusions in AR6 regarding CO2 causing warming are not valid. What Clauser thinks of the warming influence of CO2 is not revealed.
Slide 36 & 37: Power imbalance analysis by Wild et al. (2019) and AR6 (2021) – imbalance and error bars fudged – slide 3 [and 4] on that topic.
Here Clauser emphases the way AR6 fudges the numbers to report a power imbalance that is not statistically significantly greater than zero. Slide 37 gives the power flow diagrams used. Simply, the IPCC has fooled many people with its erroneous mathematics and diagrams. What they and their collaborators report is not science but a science hoax. Many others have approached the false science from different directions and exposed similar faults. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Cloud Thermostat Hypothesis – Prior Studies: Richard Courtney of the UK sent TWTW prior studies of what can be called the Cloud-Thermostat hypothesis by John Clauser. For example, the earliest one was published in Nature by V. Ramanathan & W. Collins of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and California Space Institute. The abstract states:
“Observations made during the 1987 El Niño show that in the upper range of sea surface temperatures, the greenhouse effect increases with surface temperature at a rate which exceeds the rate at which radiation is being emitted from the surface. In response to this ‘super greenhouse effect’, highly reflective cirrus clouds are produced which act like a thermostat shielding the ocean from solar radiation. The regulatory effect of these cirrus clouds may limit sea surface temperatures to less than 305 K.”
Clauser recognizes the weaknesses of the 1987 paper by Ramanathan. Another paper by Duane E. Walliser and Nicholas E. Graham, was published in Atmospheres on July 20, 1993. A critique of the Ramanathan paper was published by Rong Fu in Letters in Nature, Jully 30, 1992. The abstract states:
“RAMANATHAN and Collins have suggested cirrus clouds associated with tropical convection might act as a ‘thermostat’ to limit tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to less than 305 K by shielding the ocean from sunlight. Here we use satellite radiance data to test this hypothesis. We find that changes in the properties of cirrus clouds do not seem to be related to changes in SSTs. During the 1987 El Nino event, large-scale perturbations to the radiative effects of cirrus clouds were controlled by changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation rather than directly by SSTs. If they are averaged over the entire tropical Pacific, increases in surface evaporative cooling are stronger than decreases in solar heating owing to cirrus cloud variations. Thus, we conclude that there is no ‘cirrus cloud thermostat’ to tropical SSTs.
These studies occurred with comparatively little data from the satellite era. Further, they are limited to the tropical Pacific. As Clauser states in slide 22:
“The 2003 US National Academy / National Research Council report “Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks (p.112)” cites the Ramanathan (1987) data, and comments that “The observations do not meet quality standards.” Boldface italics in original.
We now have rich amounts of data for the entire world, which are largely ignored in IPCC reports. Further, when Richard Lindzen was asked a couple of years ago if he still supported his Iris cloud hypothesis which is similar to the cirrus cloud thermostat, Lindzen responded he did, more strongly than ever.
The work of John Clauser is broadly based, global, and dependent upon our current state of knowledge of the global atmosphere. The IPCC and its collaborators largely ignore the global atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect occurs. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy — Cloud Thermostat Hypothesis – Prior Studies.
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Meaningless Punishment: The US and Western Europe are making an extremely expensive largely useless energy transition to so-called Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions. TWTW asserts that it is useless because there is no physical evidence of dangerous global warming from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, and no one can force China and the countries of South Asia to stop increasing carbon dioxide emissions, the source of the massive increases in CO2 concentrations. Net Zero is a damaging, expensive and futile political exercise.
Professors in physics, Richard Lindzen, William Happer and William van Wijngaarden have calculated how trivial the meaningless exercise is. In “Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase” they use a simple formula, using base 2 logarithms which correspond to the actual influence of increasing CO2 on temperatures from decades of laboratory experiments and reinforced by atmospheric data. The abstract reads:
Using feedback-free estimates of the warming by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and observed rates of increase, we estimate that if the United States (U.S.) eliminated net CO2 emissions by the year 2050, this would avert a warming of 0.0084 ◦C (0.015 ◦F), which is below our ability to accurately measure. If the entire world forced net zero CO2 emissions by the year 2050, a warming of only 0.070 °C (0.13 °F) would be averted. If one assumes that the warming is a factor of 4 larger because of positive feedbacks, as asserted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the warming averted by a net zero U.S. policy would still be very small, 0.034 °C (0.061 °F). For worldwide net zero emissions by 2050 and the 4-times larger IPCC climate sensitivity, the averted warming would be 0.28 °C (0.50 °F).
No one can force the leaders of China, who are not scientifically and mathematically illiterate, unlike the leaders of the US and Western Europe, to back down. And since China is leading South Asia by example, countries making most of the increases in CO2 emissions will not go to Net Zero, regardless what the UN and its collaborators proclaim. The US energy transition, if successful, will result in:
“avert a warming of 0.0084 °C (0.015 °F), which is below our ability to accurately measure.”
It warms ten times that fast on a sunny spring morning in Northern Virginia in less than five minutes. Talk about all pain and no gain. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Popular Uprising? Although it discusses the scientific basis of political policies, TWTW generally avoids discussing politics and ideology. This issue is whether the policy makes sense, not who proposes it. A briefing by Benny Peiser, Director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), and its US representative Francis Menton needs mention. For about 15 years GWPF has published solid studies showing the folly of the UK Climate Change Act of 2008, based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007). These acts have led to the latest fad of banning carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, or before, Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions (Net Zero).
In the briefing, Peiser said that the policy papers and estimates of future costs are generally ignored by the voting public, but what interests the voting public is what hits their pocketbooks now. The costs of Net Zero are hitting the public in Western Europe now. And there is a general uprising running across party lines and ideologies against Net Zero.
Italy was hit first in its 2022 election, which resulted in a change in government, with Giorgia Meloni becoming the first woman Prime Minister. Last weekend Germany had an election which resulted in a change in government. The polls in the UK and France show that in July both countries may have a change in government. If so, we will see a dramatic change in the policies of the EU and G7. The Labour party of the UK has endorsed Net Zero and has proposed a more ambitious plan than the Conservatives. But if elected, will the Labour party adhere to it? Only time will tell.
Francis Menton discussed the magic juice that will keep the lights on in New York City once the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act) is implemented — “Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources” (DEFRs). Recall that under Governor Andrew Cuomo (2011 to 2021), New York closed two of its four nuclear power plants for no good reason except the voters in Westchester county did not like them. In writing about New York Independent System Operator’s “2023-2032 Comprehensive Reliability Plan”, Menton states:
“But the killer is the supposed ‘long term solution.’ You have to get all the way to page 52 to find out that they have no idea what that might be, and even then, it is written in code:
‘With high penetration of renewable intermittent resources, DEFRs are needed to balance intermittent supply with demand. Resources with these characteristics must be significant in capacity. . ..’
‘DEFRs’? What are those? They are the elusive ‘Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources.’ Just like fossil fuel plants, they can be turned on and off on command to meet demand, but they make no carbon emissions. Voilà — problem solved! Oh, wait — if such a thing existed, wouldn’t we be using it already?
Although they never say it in quite these words, the entire plan post-2030 relies on something that has not yet been invented or deployed at scale. What might it be? Nuclear? That is completely blocked in New York by a hostile political and regulatory environment and would take at least 15 years to deploy if we started on a crash program today. ‘Green’ hydrogen? That costs something like 20 to 50 times what natural gas costs and would require an entire new infrastructure of production facilities, pipelines, and power plants, none of which exists or is under construction or even in a serious planning stage. Batteries? Batteries just to get through one calm night (16 hours) would cost about the same as the entire New York State annual budget. Batteries to be sufficient to provide full back-up to a grid without fossil fuels (500 – 1000 hours of average usage) would cost a multiple of New York’s entire GDP.
So, in fact, there is no real plan. You can see New York hitting the wall in that chart [not shown here]. The mandates are in place. We march forward, until we can’t anymore. “
This is the magic new energy source that scientifically illiterate politicians will invent to keep the lights on as they blame others for the deficiencies in their policies. See links under The Political Games Continue for comments on energy policies by UK politicians; see links under Problems in the Orthodoxy for comments on the elections in Germany and the upcoming elections in France; see link under Energy Issues – US, for comments on New York’s grand new energy source.
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Disturbing News: For many years TWTW found the EIA Annual Energy Outlook a reliable source on US energy sources and use. In searching for the 2024 EIA Annual Energy Outlook TWTW found a disturbing post in the 2023 report.
“EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which we use to produce our Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), requires substantial updates to better model hydrogen, carbon capture, and other emerging technologies. To facilitate these model enhancements, we will not publish an AEO in 2024. You can find more information in our Statement on the Annual Energy Outlook and EIA’s plan to enhance long-term modeling capabilities.”
The link leads to the following post:
“Throughout 2024, we will update the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), the integrated energy-economy modeling system we use to produce our AEO. NEMS will feature three new modules that will improve our ability to analyze the future of the U.S. energy system. These new modules are:
- The Hydrogen Market Module, which will represent hydrogen production and pricing, including the impacts of policy, storage, and logistics.
- The Carbon Capture, Allocation, Transportation, and Sequestration Module, which will allocate projected supply of captured CO2 across the energy system to utilization or storage.
- The Hydrocarbon Supply Module, which will improve the representation of upstream oil and natural gas resources, replacing the legacy NEMS Oil and Gas Supply Module
In addition to bringing these new modules online, we’re enhancing our ability to model the energy systems of the future. We’ll be able to model a zero-carbon emissions electric power sector and improve how we model:
- EV charging
- Distributed generation and combined-heat-and-power technology.
- Battery storage in buildings
- Industrial heat pumps
- Recycling in the plastics industry
We’re also making strides in more comprehensively:
- Addressing existing and upcoming laws and regulations (including updated Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards)
- Accounting for heavy-duty vehicle ICE (internal combustion engine) bans
- Phasing out clean energy tax credits
- Updating building end-use standards and ENERGY STAR specifications”
Not to prejudge, TWTW finds these posts disturbing because they discuss energy policies using unproven technologies, not what is realistic and proven. These unproven technologies include a Hydrogen market, carbon capture, distributed generation, and combined-heat-and-power technology, and battery storage in buildings. What is needed is realistic data, not imaginary data. See links under Lowering Standards.
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Definitions: Writing in Quadrant, Online, Michael Kile discusses the definitions of global climate modeling as stated in The Devil’s Dictionary of Climate Change. Model projection is:
- “A projection of the future response of the climate system to emission scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, based on hunches, guesses, gut feeling, confirmation bias, etc., and model simulations.
- A semantic tactic to ensure that when an outcome diverges from reality, the orthodoxy can claim it was not a prediction.”
This fits the global climate modeling well. See link under Model Issues.
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DDP 2024: The 42nd Annual Meeting of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness is scheduled for July 5-7, 2024, in El Paso, Texas. The speakers include a number of outstanding scientists such as John Clauser, the 2022 Nobel Laureate in Physics for contribution to the foundations of quantum mechanics; Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, recipients of the 2023 Fredrick Seitz award by SEPP for upholding integrity in using the scientific method; Willie Soon, Michael Connolly, and Ronan Connolly of the Center for Environmental Research & Earth Science (CERES); and Patrick Moore, former Greenpeace co-founder. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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April Fools Award: TWTW intends to announce the winner of the 2024 April Fools award at the July 5 meeting of the DDP. Please submit your nominee by June 30.
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Number of the Week: 30 Seconds: Using the numbers calculated by professors Richard Lindzen, William Happer, and William van Wijngaarden, although unmeasurable, one can calculate that if the US implements Net Zero by 2050, the goal of Washington, it will prevent the warming that occurs in less than 30 seconds on a sunny spring morning in Northern Virginia.
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
How we know the sun changes the climate. III: Theories
By Javier Vinós, Climate Etc. June 11, 2024
None of the evidence for the Sun’s effect on climate we reviewed is included in the IPCC reports. The role of the IPCC is to assess the risk of human-induced climate change, not to find the causes of climate change, which since its inception has been assumed to be due to our emissions.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy
II. A Cloud Thermostat Controls the Earth’s Climate, Not Greenhouse gasses! And I. Climate change is a myth! — Slides
By John F. Clauser, Zoom Lecture, May 8, 2024
Clauser’s Case: GHG Science Wrong, Clouds the Climate Thermostat
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, June 11, 1014
“This post provides a synopsis of Dr. John Clauser’s ICSF & CLINTEL presentation last May. Below are the texts from his slides gathered into an easily readable format.
[SEPP Comment: As described by Clutz.]
Bargain: Make the whole world “Net Zero”, spend a quadrillion dollars, and cool the world by 0.3 degrees!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 14, 2024
Link to paper: Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase
By R. Lindzen, W. Happer, and W. A. van Wijngaarden, CO2 Coalition, June 2024
Science of Heat Waves Reveals Blaming CO2 is a Scam!
By Jim Steele, WUWT, June 6, 2024
Avoiding the Net Zero Trap
By Andy May, WUWT, June 10, 2024
DDP 2024 Annual Meeting
42nd Annual Meeting of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness, July 5-7, 2024
Challenging the Orthodoxy — Cloud Thermostat Hypothesis – Prior Studies
Thermodynamic regulation of ocean warming by cirrus clouds deduced from observations of the 1987 El Niño
By V. Ramanathan & W. Collins, Nature, May 2, 1991
Convective cloud systems and warm-pool sea surface temperatures: Coupled interactions and self-regulation
By Duane E. Walliser & Nicholas E. Graham, Atmospheres, July 20, 1993
Cirrus-cloud thermostat for tropical sea surface temperatures tested using satellite data
By Rong Fu, et al, Letters by Nature, July 30, 1992
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate Science is About to Make a Huge Mistake
It is déjà vu all over again
By Roger Pielke Jr., His Blog, June 10, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Pielke exposes another trick by the IPCC to hide its errors. The IPCC changes its definitions of extreme emission scenarios from RCP to REP, playing word games to hide the deficiencies in their claims. No matter what IPCC calls it, nature is not responding.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
New Hudson Bay sea ice modelling paper is more utterly useless fearmongering about polar bear
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 13, 2024
Link to press release: Scientists predict localized extinction of Hudson Bay polar bears if Paris Climate Agreements are breached
By UM News, University of Manitoba, June 13, 2024
Link to paper: Ice-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.6 °C
By Julienne Stroeve, et al. Nature, Communications Earth & Environment, June 13, 2024
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate change information is sanitized for your protection
Qualified professionals discouraged from challenging ‘settled science’
By Anthony Sadar, Washington Times, June 13, 2024
This [personal] example of government heavy-handedness on the reporting of dispassionate scientific findings — one of many — confirms that the public is right to be apprehensive of official proclamations whenever qualified professionals are strongly discouraged and even prevented from challenging dubious “settled science.”
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 12, 2024
The Australian Business Review warns that “Transmission line projects are running years behind their initial timetable, with the slow pace of development sharpening the risk of blackouts and price rises.” Their government wants to double “renewable” supply by 2030 and has hurled tens of billions of Australian dollars into it because they can fix the weather. It’s just stuff like running a power line that is complicated, apparently.
The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on global warming
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 12, 2024
From the CO2Science archive:
The #CRE challenge: A rival model of climate change part I
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 12, 2024
Link to paper: Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970
By Qing-Bin Lu, Atmosphere, July 31, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Arguing that halo-GHGs (including the famous CFCs [chlorofluorocarbon] used to be used as refrigerants and foam aerators) are the cause of recent warming.]
Energy & Environmental Review: June 10, 2024
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, June 10, 2024
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Despite the hottest year in a hundred thousand years, Europeans voted for maligned, climate denying, far right parties
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 11, 2024
Deputy Leader Of Germany’s Centre-Right Party: Country In A “Green Fairy Tale World”
By P Gosselin, No Trucks Zone, June 9, 2024
Is Paris About to Leave the Paris Agreement?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 10, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The next parliamentary election in France is June 30 to July 7.]
Models v. Observations
A schism in climate science
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, June 14, 2024
But the twin conclusions are much more clear: that the models are inadequate and that we do not understand global warming as well as many scientists have claimed.
Model Issues
Correlation, Causation and Catastrophists
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, June 15, 2024
Measurement Issues — Surface
Dyce Weather Station Next To Runway
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 9, 2024
One of the Met Office’s temperature recording stations is at Aberdeen Dyce Airport. It has been operational since 1959.
Changing Weather
Summer Refuses To Appear Over Much Of Europe…Snow Disrupts Tour De Suisse
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 12, 2024
Extreme Talk About Weather Events
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, June 14, 2024
How Wet Was The Spring?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 12, 2024
Tooting’s Great Storm Of 1914
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
Changing Climate
New Study: Large Atmospheric Pressure Swings May Explain Past Hothouse-Icehouse Climates, CO2 Levels
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 14, 2024
Link to latest study: The possible adaption of the human respiratory system to past atmospheres
By Alan Cannell, Experimental Physiology, Mar 27, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Doubt it.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Aw snap!
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 12, 2024
Huge area of open water on Hudson Bay created by wind, not ice melt, NSIDC experts confirm
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 9, 2024
Changing Earth
Hunga Tonga burnin’ love
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 12, 2024
Lowering Standards
A Socialist tract on fast decarbonization from the National Academies
By David Wojick, CFACT, June 11, 2024
The title of this 800-page tome is “Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions” from the US National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM).
I seldom use the term “socialist”, but it is the perfect word here once the concept is updated. It originally referred to government ownership of the means of production. But in today’s Regulatory State, ownership is not required for control, so it means government control of production, or more broadly, government control of both production and use.
Annual Energy Outlook, 2023
By Staff, US Energy Information Administration, March 16, 2023
Link to: AEO2025 Resources
[SEPP Comment: Disturbing news.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
The Wall Street Journal’s Left Turn on Climate Change Is Unjustified, the ‘Finer Things in Life’ Are Widely Available
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, June 11, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The political ideology is immaterial; the WSJ is publishing a lot of mental drivel.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate Alarmist Hype that May 2024 is the “Hottest” Global Average Temperature Anomaly is Meaningless in the U.S. and at other global locations around the World
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, June 6, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Treasury says EV tax credit has saved consumers $1 billion
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, June 12, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Twisted accounting at the Treasury. The credit did not save the ordinary consumer anything, but did save money for the generally wealthy who can afford to buy EVs.]
Merchants Of Panic. Data Reveal That Damages From Weather Have Not Risen
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 8, 2024
Global Heating Will Increase Parasite Outbreaks–SWW
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
First, we had the boss of Network Rail blaming the Stonehaven crash on global warming, before his company was fined for negligence.
Now SSW [water utility] are trying to deflect the blame for the cryptosporidium outbreak in Devon:
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
‘Europe’s Greens take a beating at the polls. Is the US next?’
By Joel Kirkland, Politico, June 10, 2024 [H/t Marc Morano]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Shameful Behavior by Prof Paul Williams Reading University
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 13, 2024
Video covering the personal attacks by Paul Williams on the commentator who authored a critique of the work by Williams who claimed an increase air turbulence over North Atlantic without taking in account the increase in air traffic. As the commentator states: What matters, is what evidence you have?
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
BBC Hails Green Election Letter From “408 Climate Scientists” Signed by Psychologists, Accountants and Landscape Designers
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, June 13, 2024
Bob Ward, who organized the petition through the billionaire-funded Grantham operation, tweeted, “be ambitious on climate, scientists urge parties”, while James ‘the climate clock is ticking’ Murray from Business Green stepped up a gear by referring to “top scientists.” Scientists, you say? The first ‘scientist’ in the alphabetical list is an Associate Professor of Accounting, the second is a geographer specializing in “disaster risk reduction”, while the third is an archaeologist.
Fake Record Heat In India
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 10, 2024
Video
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
[Chicago] Teachers Union Issues List Of Climate Demands As Students Struggle To Read At Grade Level
By Nike Pope, Daily Caller, June 14, 2024
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Net loss
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 12, 2024
In addition to seeing things that aren’t there, climate zealots often fail to see things that are. And when we say climate zealots, we include a surprisingly large group of people including, oddly, Canadian bankers, precisely the sort of reactionary capitalists you’d expect to find conspiring against the workers and the planet as the executive committee of the bourgeoisie if you were some omni cause radical.
Questioning European Green
Fossil Fuels Remain The Future. VW To Invest 60 Billion Euros In Combustion Engines!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 14, 2024
What’s behind the sudden swing back to combustion engines and the growing aversion to electric cars?
As the recent European election results starkly show, customers are tired of being told what to buy and what rules to follow. Germany’s Green Party lost nearly half its voter base in last Sunday’s EU election. Moreover, China’s ability to produce electric cars cheaply is being increasingly viewed as a threat.
The rich will soon pay a heavy price for net zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Problem With Plastic Pollution Is Not Plastic
By Josiah Neeley, Real Clear Energy, June 10, 2024
[SEPP Comment: It is a problem of proper disposal.]
Funding Issues
New Report Reveals Massive Scale of Green Billionaire Funding of ‘Climate Emergency’ Reporting in Mainstream Media
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, June 11, 2024 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Link to report: Covering the Planet: Assessing the State of Climate and Environmental Journalism Globally
By Gabi Mocatta, et al., Deakin University, Melbourne, 2024
An emphasis in the report: Every story is a climate story
There’s Big Money In Flight Turbulence!!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
Link to highly questionable paper: Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades
By Mark C. Prosser, Paul D. Williams, Graeme J. Marlton, R. Giles Harrison, Geophysical Research Letters, June 8, 2023
After listing several grants, the latest for 743,000 USD, covering 2022-2025, Homewood writes: I wonder whether the grants would have dried up if Williams’ studies showed turbulence was not getting worse after all?
The Political Games Continue
The LibDems’ unserious energy manifesto
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, June 11, 2024
An energy manifesto for national decline
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, June 12, 2024
It seems that the Conservatives have learned nothing.
The fairy tale of Labour’s Brothers Grim
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, June 14, 2024
Labour’s energy plans are best described as ‘utterly puerile’ [childish]. Their very own Brothers Grim – Mr Starmer and Mr Miliband – have come out with a set of ideas that would be quite at home in the pages of a fairy story.
As NZW readers know, the ‘climate emergency’ is a superstition. And growth in renewables has, of course, been accompanied by a steady rise in electricity prices; the two moved in lockstep from 2002 to 2020, the eve of the Ukraine war.
Labour’s net zero plans ‘risk blackouts and public unrest’-Claire Coutinho [Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
Blackouts in 2030 or 2035? Vote Now!!
Labour To Keep Strategic Reserve Of Gas Power Stations?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 13, 2024
Labour energy policies already impacting North Sea business
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 8, 2024
Starmer [Labour Party] risks losing support for fighting climate change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 12, 2024
The political risk of Reform
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, June 10, 2024
Link to Reform Party manifesto on Energy & Environment, Accessed June 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: These include Scrap Net Zero and Related Subsidies; Scrap Annual £10 Billion of Renewable Energy Subsidies; and Cheap, Secure Energy.]
The Climate Wars ignited again in Australia and Labor’s best argument is just scorn and derision
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 12, 2024
Litigation Issues
Courting disaster
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 12, 2024
But we are a bit surprised that the city and county of Honolulu are trying to get the U.S. Supreme Court to declare oil companies liable for climate damages thereby rewriting climate policy for the entire nation. And also that whereas most such tort actions demand that the defendant (technically “tortfeasor” at least in Canada) stop doing whatever is supposedly harming the complainant, these plaintiffs would be appalled if told no more gas or oil would be sold in Hawaii. [Boldface added]
The Morning After Chevron: Courts Tell the FDA How to Do Its Job
By Barbara Pfeffer Billauer, ACSH, June 7, 2024
Now, two cases seek to overturn Chevron and, in so doing, dishonor the time-venerated deference to administrative expertise and research resources.
[SEPP Comment: The author ignores a major issue: The abuse of the Chevron deference by the EPA in claiming that CO2 is a pollutant and the Federal government in claiming a climate crisis. Such bureaucratic whims must be curtailed, and the Chevron deference eliminated because many agencies are not honest in their science.]
Oil and gas groups suing Biden EPA over ‘EV mandate’
By Grant Schwab, The Detroit News June 13, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to what Shailen Bhatt, administrator of the Federal Highway Administration, states, it is Washington forcing EVs onto the public that politicized the issue, not the oil companies.]
The Good Fellas Win in New Jersey
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight (GAO) June 11, 2024
Last year, GAO filed a New Jersey OPRA suit for the contract (and disclosures) between the Garden State’s Attorney General and climate-plaintiffs’ law firm Sher Edling, LLP—some very basic details the plaintiffs seem to be very concerned about the public seeing, whatever the jurisdiction, after a few arrangements made their way into the public domain. GAO is pleased to report that, despite dogged resistance by NJ OAG, the AG’s Office has been ordered to release the records.
Legal challenge made over ‘net zero’ power plant
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 8, 2024
It would therefore make much more sense all round to just build a proper CCGT plant with no carbon capture.
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
New Zealand Cancels the Climate Change Cow Fart Tax
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 12, 2024
[SEPP Comment; Ruminants ferment their food in their first stomach before digestion; thus, most methane comes out the mouth, burps.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The EV Mandate Will Likely Destroy the Auto Sector in Canada
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, June 14, 2024
Link to paper: Economic Implications of a Phased-in EV Mandate in Canada
By Ross McKitrick, Accepted for publication, Canadian Journal of Economics, 2024
The EV Tax Credit Is a Climate Lemon
By Oliver McPherson-Smith, Real Clare Energy, June 10, 2024
Blue tits vs willow tits: a lesson in subsidies
By Matt Ridley, His Blog, Mar 2, 2024
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Biden administration is mandating heat pump water heaters, but contractors report big problems
One contractor is no longer advocating that people get heat pump water heaters until the problems are fixed. After losing about $13,000 to repair clients’ defective water heaters, he stopped offering a warranty on labor
By Kevin Killough, Just the News, June 9, 2024
Link to: DOE Finalizes Efficiency Standards for Water Heaters to Save Americans Over $7 Billion on Household Utility Bills Annually
Press Release, DOE, April 30, 2024
[SEPP Comment: New DOE Motto: Spend more to save more! Just think of the great savings you will get when you are 120, if you and the appliance lasts that long.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Net zero by 2050 is simply not happening
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 8, 2024
“To his great credit, Smil’s report adds to a growing body of data detailing the enormous costs involved in this forced march to lower standards of living for all but the privileged elites among us. It should be required reading in every household and school. “
How Jacinda Ardern left New Zealand on the brink of blackouts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
“The ban [of oil and gas exploration] was announced by former prime minister Jacinda Ardern in 2018. “The world has moved on from fossil fuels,” Ardern proclaimed at the time.
The threat to New Zealand’s energy security comes despite the fact that geologists have discovered billions of cubic meters of natural gas in the sea beds around the country.”
From Homewood: Although New Zealand gets more than half its electricity from hydro, only 7% comes from wind and solar. Hence the need for fossil fuels.
New Zealand to revoke oil drilling ban amid fears of blackouts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 9, 2024
Net Zero Watch says Labour and Policy Exchange [Conservative thinktank] have been tricked
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, June 10, 2024
Energy Issues – Australia
Aussie Green Insurrection: Build Coal Plants to Save the Koalas!
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 12, 2024
Four Corners: Wind Farms are Devastating Community Cohesion in Rural Australia
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 14, 2024
Energy Issues — US
A Preview On Some Of The New York Energy Impossibility
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 12, 2024
The Shakedown That Is Vermont’s New Climate Superfund Law
By Jonathan Lesser, Real Clear Energy, June 12, 2024
Despite the impossibility of attributing specific events to burning fossil fuels, the State Treasurer’s office will be required to issue a report in January 2026 that estimates the alleged damages climate change caused the state over the 30-year period and estimates future damages. This leads to the second fundamental problem: How will the Treasurer’s office credibly estimate those damages?
[SEPP Comment: Until the issue is addressed, the Vermont politicians should ban the use of fossil fuels.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Biden’s crusade against US energy harms America and our allies
Bipartisan congressional opposition stands up to Biden’s anti-energy crusade
By Rick Perry, Fox News, June 10, 2024
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Contentious Mountain Valley Pipeline begins operation days after federal approval
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, June 14, 2024
The world is using more oil, coal and gas than ever before and will use more. Net Zero is dead
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
[Telegraph commentator] Blackmon’s comments about the IEA are spot on. They never really were an independent authority, but now all they are interested in is propaganda.
Fossil Fuels: The Best-Kept Secret in Our World Today
By Jason Isaac, Real Clear Energy, June 11, 2024
Return of King Coal?
Coal Meets India’s Record Power Demand
By Vijay Jayaraj Real Clear Energy June 10, 2024
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Nuclear Power Risk? Australia is Already Part of the Nuclear Age
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 10, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Interesting perspective.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Solar Developer “Disinformation” Reality
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, June 13, 2024
A New York Solar Project Scorecard (Acres)
Solar farms are taking us back to the dark ages
By Matt Ridley, His Blog, April 3, 2024
To match UK electricity demand from solar on a June afternoon would mean covering 5-10% of the entire country with solar farms but they would be useless at night and in winter. British solar output peaks at precisely the times we least need it: in the middle of the day in the middle of summer.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
German Hydrogen Rollout Fails To Take Off
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 13, 2024
Without massive subsidies, hydrogen is a non-starter in Germany.
[SEPP Comment: Another Grimm green fairytale?]
Hydrogen CfD Costs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 12, 2024
‘Green’ renewable fuel plants are releasing MORE pollution than oil refineries
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
£300 Million Down The Drain For Trafford Storage–And Guess Who Pays?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
This would be the first commercial-scale liquid air energy storage plant in the UK, according to Highview. Constructing the facility will support more than 700 jobs both directly and in the supply chain, the company added.
The cryogenic energy storage plans have already received approval from Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.
“My vision is for Greater Manchester to be a leader in the green transition – and Highview Power’s decision to build one of the world’s largest long-duration energy storage facilities at Carrington is a huge boost for the region,” Burnham said.
[SEPP Comment: Another Grimm green fairytale.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The Latest On The Federal War Against Internal Combustion Vehicles
By Franics Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 8, 2024
The Biden Administration is all in with the plan to get rid of the ICE car. Why? It seems to have something to do with the non-existent “climate crisis.” Meanwhile, Congress has passed no legislation authorizing the executive agencies to force ICE vehicles off the market. Nor is the Administration honest enough to admit that they are engaged in outlawing the vehicles that 90+% of the people drive.
Carbon Schemes
Time Is of the Essence for Cement Sector Decarbonization
By Mike Ireland, Real Clear Energy, June 11, 2024
Recently, the government has increased its support for manufacturers. In March, the Department of Energy (DOE) awarded over $1.2 billion to four cement companies for decarbonization projects. These companies have committed to matching that funding, with a focus on research and development in those three key focus areas.
In the long run, the most important of these will be CCUS: the production process of cement – breaking the hydrocarbon bonds of the raw materials at temperatures of around 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit – creates carbon dioxide as a by-product. It is a chemical fact of life in the cement production process. [carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
AI Doublespeak
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 13, 2024
June temperatures at half the level of this time last year–Emma Gatten
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2024
Silly Emma!!
ARTICLES
1. The ‘Climate Crisis’ Fades Out
As the energy transition inches through the ‘issue attention’ cycle, a wiser approach should emerge.
By Steven E. Koonin, WSJ, June 10, 2024
TWTW Summary: The article begins with:
“The 2015 Paris Agreement aspired to ‘reduce the risks and impacts of climate change’ by eliminating greenhouse-gas emissions in the latter half of this century. The centerpiece of the strategy was a global transition to low-emission energy systems.
After nearly a decade, it’s timely to ask how that energy transition is progressing and how it might fare in the future.
Koonin discusses phases of interest by Anthony Downs then addresses the issue:
But the significant global emissions reductions envisioned in Paris are now a fantasy. Emissions grew to an all-time high in 2023, with consumption of coal, oil and natural gas each near record levels, driven in large part by the energy needs of the developing world. Despite global renewable-energy investment of almost $12 trillion in the nine years ending in 2023, fossil fuels continue to provide about 80% of the world’s energy. The latest United Nations emissions report projects that emissions in 2030 will be almost twice as high as a level compatible with the Paris aspiration.”
TWTW Comment: Koonin does not address the real problem, China and South Asia do not believe UN “projections” nor should the US.
*********************
2. Look Whom the EPA Is Funding Now
Inflation Reduction Act money is paying groups that want to abolish ICE.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, June 14, 2024
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“The Inflation Reduction Act is the political gift that keeps on giving—especially if you’re a lobby for progressive causes. We recently told you that the Environmental Protection Agency handed IRA money to an outfit backing anti-Israel protests. Turns out EPA is also funding groups that oppose immigration enforcement.
That’s the latest discovery by West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito’s office, which is probing IRA spending. The law appropriated $3 billion for Environmental and Climate Justice block grants. EPA is supposed to select ‘grantmakers’ and ‘partner’ organizations to spread around the largesse.
EPA tapped Fordham University as a grantmaker to distribute $50 million, in collaboration with the New York Immigration Coalition (NYIC) and the New Jersey Alliance for Immigrant Justice (NJAIJ). What does immigration have to do with climate? Nothing, though progressives say the issues ‘intersect’ in the oppression of minority groups.
According to the EPA, Fordham and its partners will take ‘an intersectional approach to place frontline communities in positions of power’ to advance climate justice ‘in disadvantaged and hard-to-reach communities and communities disproportionately impacted by climate change, pollution, and other environmental stressors.’ What does that even mean?
Perhaps abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which is what NYIC advocates. NYIC condemned ICE as ‘racist and abusive’ at a ‘Member Congress’ in January. The group this month rallied with Democrats in Albany for a bill to prohibit local law enforcement from working with ICE.
After President Biden’s election, the New Jersey Alliance for Immigrant Justice called for ending ‘all ICE transfers’ and ‘all forms of incarceration in NY and NJ.’ Does that count migrant criminals, including Venezuelan gang members, who prey on the innocent? NJAIJ boasts that its New Jersey policy victories include state cash assistance for undocumented immigrants and a ban on local government contract renewals with ICE.
As Mr. Biden talks tough on border security, his EPA is funding groups that are seeking to undermine immigration enforcement. It’s no surprise that IRA money is being misspent. But we can’t help wondering whether the Administration is trying to fund the resistance to a future Trump Administration.”
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3. New York Legislators Pass Climate Superfund Bill
Bill would bring in $3 billion in annual revenue from fossil-fuel companies over the next 25 years, if signed into law
By H. Claire Brown, WSJ, June 11, 2024
TWTW Summary: The article begins with:
“New York legislators passed a bill last week that would charge fossil-fuel companies a total of $3 billion a year for 25 years to pay for costs associated with climate change.
The Climate Change Superfund Act is now headed to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s desk for her signature. If enacted, New York will become the second U.S. state with a law requiring fossil-fuel companies to bear some of the financial burden of climate change.
Vermont led the charge last month. Similar bills have been introduced in California, Massachusetts and Maryland.
New York Sen. Liz Krueger, a sponsor of the bill, said $3 billion wouldn’t cover the full annual cost of adaptation and mitigation in New York. “We’re probably spending a lot more than that a year already, and the numbers keep growing when you look at flooding damage, storm damage, rising water tables, fires, pollution, health—all these things being caused by climate change.”
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4. United Nations, Climate Censor
The Secretary-General wants to ban advertising by fossil-fuel companies.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, June 10, 2024
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
“The United Nations has lousy ideas about nearly everything these days, but sometimes even Turtle Bay outdoes itself. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres did that last week when he said countries should ban advertising for fossil fuels.
‘Many in the fossil fuel industry have shamelessly greenwashed—even as they have sought to delay climate action,’ Mr. Guterres said. ‘I urge every country to ban advertising from fossil-fuel companies. And I urge news media and tech companies to stop taking fossil-fuel advertising.’
‘Greenwashing’ is the word climate alarmists use to attack anyone who disagrees with them. Mr. Guterres lacks the power to enforce an advertising restriction and thank goodness. But he is using his bully pulpit to call for what amounts to global censorship of anyone speaking on behalf of the industry that supplies most of the world’s energy. He wants to censor anyone who doesn’t sign up to the U.N. climate agenda.
Has he heard of freedom of speech and press? Then again, this is the fellow who indulges China and Vietnam on the Human Rights Council, so maybe he doesn’t care. If he did he might worry about the forced labor of Uyghurs in Xinjiang.
In the U.S. the First Amendment protects freedom of speech, and the Supreme Court has said that includes commercial speech. Mr. Guterres tried to analogize a fossil-fuel advertising ban to restrictions on marketing tobacco and other ‘products that harm human health.’ But tobacco and alcohol are illegal for minors in the U.S. and other countries. Fossil fuels remain a legal and regulated resource that supplies 60% of U.S. electric power.”
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