Met winter wat nader kom, is dit kommerwekkend dat fase 4-beurtkrag reeds ingestel is. Foto: Getty Images
- Eskom has confirmed that the amount of load shedding – or the electricity demand not met – for 2023 so far has exceeded that of 2022.
- Based on current trends, load shedding for 2023 could be four times as much as that of 2022, according to analysis by CSIR.
- The total hours of load shedding for 2023 have not surpassed that of 2022.
- For climate change news and analysis, go to News24 Climate Future.
Eskom has confirmed that the amount of load shedding – or the electricity demand not met – for 2023 so far, has exceeded that of 2022.
“Yes, the demand not supplied due to load shedding in calendar year 2023 up to midnight of 7 May 2023 exceeded the demand not supplied in the calendar year of 2022,” Eskom said.
The power utility was responding to questions about a graph from the app Load Shedding Notifier, which was circulating on Twitter. It showed that the amount of load shedding, measured in gigawatt hours, would surpass that of 2022 sometime this week.
Some time tomorrow afternoon or evening, we will have #loadshed more Gigawatt hours in 2023 year-to-date than the ENTIRE of 2022. Just to highlight how bad things have gotten. 2023 is going to be at least 2.5x 2022 shedding. And SARB thinks we gonna post GDP growth?? pic.twitter.com/PagPzDiOme
— Dwaine van Vuuren (@dwaine_van) May 9, 2023
The app, however, has disclaimers about its data – indicating that analysis is based on publicly available information and may not be “100% accurate”.
While Eskom said 2023 has in fact already overtaken 2022, it also disputed the numbers cited. Noting the graph, which indicates that as at 9 May, 11 597GWh have been load shed, compared to 11 839GWh, Eskom said that both these quantities are “grossly overestimated”.
Eskom expects this is because the app may be counting the loss of 1 000MW per stage of load shedding. “During off-peak periods this is far less than 1 000MW per stage,” the utility said.
Eskom has not provided News24 with its exact figures which indicate the GWh of load shedding measured, and by how much that exceeds 2022 levels.
Analysis by Monique le Roux, senior researcher of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research’s (CSIR) Energy Centre, however, shows figures exceeding 11 000GWh. CSIR used publicly available data from Eskom, the app EskomSePush and the National Energy Regulator of South Africa for its analysis.
Based on CSIR’s analysis, we have not exceeded 2022’s load shedding just yet. It projects that if Stage 6 continues, load shedding for the year to date would exceed 2022 between 14:00 and 17:00 on Thursday.
Le Roux noted that in 2022 we had four times more load shedding compared to 2021. This is set to be repeated in 2023, based on current trends.
As to whether new records of load shedding have been broken, Eskom said that if load shedding is measured as a percentage of demand being reduced, then 2023 has recorded the highest values to date. In terms of hours, we have not yet exceeded the load shedding hours clocked in 2022.
CSIR’s analysis shows there have been 2 896 hours of load shedding in 2023 so far, compared to 3 751 in the whole of 2022.
Le Roux noted that there have been significantly more hours of Stage 6 compared to 2022. She measured 548 hours in 2023, compared to 166 hours of Stage 6 in 2022.
Looking ahead, Eskom said there is about 4 000MW of generation capacity in any given week, which may not certainly be available.
“Because of this level of uncertainty, Eskom has resorted to scenario planning for varying levels of unplanned unavailability. For winter 2023, the scenarios range from 15 000MW – 18 000MW of unplanned unavailability,” it said.
Eskom is currently implementing Stage 6 load shedding.
Although higher stages of load shedding have not yet been introduced, steps are under way to develop a code of practice for Stage 9 load shedding. The code of practice would provide direction as to how municipalities should implement Stage 9 load shedding.
Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has warned that it will be an “exceptionally difficult” winter. He has also raised concerns of the cost load shedding has had on the economy and the associated job losses.
The Reserve Bank previously estimated the power cuts would shave off two percentage points off GDP.
Ramokgopa told members of the National Council of Provinces, in Parliament this week, that government is committed to implementing the Energy Action Plan to tackle load shedding. The plan was announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa in July last year.
The plan focuses on improving the energy availability factor or plant performance of coal-fired stations, as well as encouraging private sector investment in energy by lifting the licensing threshold on embedded generation projects.
Government also plans to roll out more bid windows for renewable energy, and has launched an incentive for households and businesses to install rooftop solar PV. Eskom also launched a demand-side management initiative to incentivise people to use less electricity during peak times.